SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hong Kong win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Thailand had a probability of 33.58% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hong Kong win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.08%) and 2-0 (5.55%). The likeliest Thailand win was 1-2 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Thailand would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Hong Kong | Draw | Thailand |
43.96% ( 22.58) | 22.46% ( -0.99) | 33.58% ( -21.6) |
| Both teams to score 66.55% ( 14.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.08% ( 13.96) | 33.93% ( -13.96) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.22% ( 14.29) | 55.78% ( -14.29) |
| Hong Kong Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.9% ( 20.64) | 16.1% ( -20.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.5% ( 28.03) | 45.5% ( -28.03) |
| Thailand Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.32% ( -3.47) | 20.68% ( 3.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.73% ( -5.77) | 53.27% ( 5.77) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hong Kong | Draw | Thailand |
| 2-1 @ 8.75% ( 3.17) 1-0 @ 6.08% ( -0.25)2-0 @ 5.55% ( 2.38)3-1 @ 5.33% ( 3.47)3-2 @ 4.2% ( 2.56)3-0 @ 3.38% ( 2.32)4-1 @ 2.43% ( 1.97)4-2 @ 1.92% ( 1.51)4-0 @ 1.54% ( 1.28)4-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.77)Other @ 3.77% Total : 43.96% | 1-1 @ 9.58% ( -1.56) 2-2 @ 6.9% ( 1.99)0-0 @ 3.33% ( -3)3-3 @ 2.21% ( 1.25)Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.46% | 1-2 @ 7.55% ( -2.25) 0-1 @ 5.25% ( -5.87)0-2 @ 4.14% ( -5.66)1-3 @ 3.97% ( -1.78)2-3 @ 3.62% ( 0.75)0-3 @ 2.17% ( -3.57)1-4 @ 1.56% ( -0.97)2-4 @ 1.43% ( 0.16)Other @ 3.89% Total : 33.58% |
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