Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaysia win with a probability of 47.88%. A win for Hong Kong had a probability of 29.47% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaysia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.13%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Hong Kong win was 1-2 (7.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Malaysia would win this match.
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