Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahrain win with a probability of 50.3%. A win for Hong Kong had a probability of 25.95% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahrain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Hong Kong win was 1-2 (6.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahrain would win this match.