SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 42.76%. A win for Kyrgyzstan had a probability of 34.78% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.9%) and 2-0 (5.33%). The likeliest Kyrgyzstan win was 1-2 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tajikistan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Tajikistan | Draw | Kyrgyzstan |
| 42.76% | 22.46% | 34.78% |
| Both teams to score 66.95% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.44% | 33.56% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.64% | 55.36% |
| Tajikistan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.59% | 16.41% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.93% | 46.07% |
| Kyrgyzstan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.1% | 19.9% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.97% | 52.03% |
| Score Analysis |
| Tajikistan | Draw | Kyrgyzstan |
| 2-1 @ 8.61% 1-0 @ 5.9% 2-0 @ 5.33% 3-1 @ 5.19% 3-2 @ 4.19% 3-0 @ 3.21% 4-1 @ 2.34% 4-2 @ 1.89% 4-0 @ 1.45% 4-3 @ 1.02% Other @ 3.62% Total : 42.76% | 1-1 @ 9.53% 2-2 @ 6.95% 0-0 @ 3.27% 3-3 @ 2.25% Other @ 0.46% Total : 22.46% | 1-2 @ 7.69% 0-1 @ 5.27% 0-2 @ 4.26% 1-3 @ 4.14% 2-3 @ 3.74% 0-3 @ 2.29% 1-4 @ 1.67% 2-4 @ 1.51% 0-4 @ 0.92% 3-4 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.38% Total : 34.78% |
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