Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 56.51%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Kyrgyzstan had a probability of 20.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Kyrgyzstan win it was 0-1 (6.2%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.
