Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nagoya Grampus win with a probability of 46.05%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 26.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nagoya Grampus win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.91%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.73%), while for a Sagan Tosu win it was 0-1 (9.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nagoya Grampus in this match.