Athletic have won just two of their last eight away league games, and we think that they will have to settle for a draw against a Celta side that has avoided defeat in each of their previous four home matches.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celta Vigo win with a probability of 39.57%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 33.51% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Celta Vigo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (7.08%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (9.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Celta Vigo would win this match.
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