Celta have drawn four of their nine home league matches this season, suffering just three defeats, and they will be the fresher of the two teams heading into this match. Athletic will have been boosted by their Copa del Rey success, but they are not winning in the league at the moment, so we have had to settle on a low-scoring draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 41.8%. A win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 30.92% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.54%) and 0-2 (7.77%). The likeliest Celta Vigo win was 1-0 (9.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.
0.11) 
-0.25) 
