Villarreal are in a strong run of form, and although Celta are battling for their lives, we are predicting a narrow away victory here, which would strengthen Villarreal's hopes of a European finish this term. Alexander Sorloth has scored nine times in his last eight league appearances and could be the difference between the two sides in this contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celta Vigo win with a probability of 49.02%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 26.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Celta Vigo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8.41%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 0-1 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Celta Vigo would win this match.
-0.29) 
0.42) 
