We said: Gillingham 1-1 Crewe Alexandra
There is no downplaying the importance of this match for both sides, but we are finding it difficult to separate them here. Gillingham have struggled at home, but Crewe's away record is also really poor, so we have had to settle on a low-scoring draw on Tuesday night.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crewe Alexandra win with a probability of 39.56%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 34.01% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crewe Alexandra win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.49%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 1-0 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
