We said: Burton Albion 1-1 Crewe Alexandra
While Burton are better placed in the standings, Crewe's momentum and extra game time effectively cancels that out. With that in mind, we are backing a competitive draw in Staffordshire, even if a point apiece would not be satisfactory for either manager.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burton Albion win with a probability of 53.36%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 22.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burton Albion win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.32%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 0-1 (6.58%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burton Albion would win this match.
