Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 61.91%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 15.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.06%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.52%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 0-1 (5.74%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sunderland would win this match.