Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 40.31%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 31.63% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.22%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-0 (10.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sunderland would win this match.