SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 43.45%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 28.03%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.68%) and 1-2 (8.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.12%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 1-0 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
28.03% ( 0.32) | 28.52% ( 0.01) | 43.45% ( -0.32) |
| Both teams to score 44.16% ( 0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.26% ( 0.12) | 61.74% ( -0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.46% ( 0.09) | 81.54% ( -0.09) |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.54% ( 0.34) | 38.46% ( -0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 24.79% ( 0.32) | 75.21% ( -0.32) |
| AFC Wimbledon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.76% ( -0.11) | 28.24% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 36.06% ( -0.15) | 63.94% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Carlisle United | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
| 1-0 @ 10.37% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 6.27% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 4.96% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 2% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 1.58% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.26% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.58% Total : 28.02% | 1-1 @ 13.12% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 10.86% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 3.96% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.57% Total : 28.52% | 0-1 @ 13.73% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 8.68% ( -0.1)1-2 @ 8.3% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.66% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3.5% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.67% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.65% Total : 43.45% |
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