Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 44.57%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 29.74% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.08%) and 0-2 (7.78%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%).
0.01) 
-0.02) 
