Considering that Carlisle are dealing with numerous injury absentees, it would not be surprising if Wimbledon were able to take advantage of the visitors' lack of cohesiveness.
Additionally, the hosts have a strong record at home this season, and they should come into Saturday's match as clear favourites.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 44.34%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 29.44% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
0.02) 
-0.08) 
