Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cheltenham Town win with a probability of 38.53%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 33.92% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cheltenham Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.15%) and 0-2 (7.05%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (10.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cheltenham Town would win this match.