Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.87%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 34.54% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.07%) and 2-0 (6.9%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 0-1 (10.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
