Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 31.83% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.67%) and 0-2 (7.44%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-0 (9.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.