Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 45.21%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Stevenage had a probability of 27.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.95%) and 1-2 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.92%), while for a Stevenage win it was 1-0 (9.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.