Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 38.25%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 33.03% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.83%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (11.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sutton United would win this match.
