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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 53.7%. A win for Auckland FC had a probability of 23.29% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.67%) and 0-2 (8.77%). The likeliest Auckland FC win was 2-1 (6.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Auckland FC | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
23.29% ( 0.02) | 23.01% ( 0.19) | 53.7% ( -0.21) |
| Both teams to score 56.33% ( -0.63) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.15% ( -0.85) | 43.85% ( 0.85) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.76% ( -0.84) | 66.24% ( 0.84) |
| Auckland FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.28% ( -0.45) | 32.71% ( 0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.73% ( -0.51) | 69.27% ( 0.51) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.72% ( -0.38) | 16.28% ( 0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.16% ( -0.69) | 45.84% ( 0.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| Auckland FC | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 6.04% ( -0) 1-0 @ 5.95% ( 0.15)2-0 @ 3.33% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 2.25% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.04% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 1.24% ( 0)Other @ 2.45% Total : 23.29% | 1-1 @ 10.8% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 5.48% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 5.33% ( 0.2)3-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.01% | 1-2 @ 9.8% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 9.67% ( 0.23)0-2 @ 8.77% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 5.93% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 5.31% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.31% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 2.69% ( -0.07)0-4 @ 2.41% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.5% ( -0.06)1-5 @ 0.98% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.32% Total : 53.7% |
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