SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 44.27%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 31.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
44.27% ( 0.73) | 24.3% ( -0.02) | 31.43% ( -0.71) |
| Both teams to score 58.83% ( -0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.34% ( -0.18) | 43.66% ( 0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.95% ( -0.17) | 66.05% ( 0.18) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.12% ( 0.25) | 19.88% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.01% ( 0.4) | 51.99% ( -0.39) |
| Brisbane Roar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.43% ( -0.53) | 26.58% ( 0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.21% ( -0.7) | 61.79% ( 0.71) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
| 2-1 @ 9.14% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 8.53% ( 0.13)2-0 @ 6.89% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 4.92% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 3.71% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 3.26% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.99% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.01% Total : 44.27% | 1-1 @ 11.3% 2-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.29% | 1-2 @ 7.49% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 7% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 4.64% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 3.31% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.08)1-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.17% Total : 31.43% |
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