SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Auckland FC win with a probability of 37.69%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 36.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Auckland FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.23%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 0-1 (8.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Auckland FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Auckland FC | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
37.69% ( 1.4) | 25.77% ( 0.37) | 36.53% ( -1.77) |
| Both teams to score 55.01% ( -1.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.82% ( -1.64) | 49.18% ( 1.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.75% ( -1.5) | 71.24% ( 1.5) |
| Auckland FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.49% ( 0.02) | 25.5% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.65% ( 0.03) | 60.35% ( -0.03) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.84% ( -1.74) | 26.16% ( 1.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.76% ( -2.39) | 61.23% ( 2.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Auckland FC | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 1-0 @ 9.11% ( 0.6) 2-1 @ 8.35% ( 0.16)2-0 @ 6.23% ( 0.42)3-1 @ 3.8% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 2.84% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.54% Total : 37.69% | 1-1 @ 12.22% ( 0.22) 0-0 @ 6.67% ( 0.44)2-2 @ 5.6% ( -0.17)3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.77% | 0-1 @ 8.95% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 8.2% ( -0.26)0-2 @ 6% ( -0.2)1-3 @ 3.66% ( -0.31)0-3 @ 2.68% ( -0.23)2-3 @ 2.5% ( -0.21)1-4 @ 1.23% ( -0.17)Other @ 3.31% Total : 36.53% |
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