Copa Libertadores | First Round | 1st Leg
Feb 8, 2024 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Felix Capriles
Alaniz (45+1')
Sanchez (35'), Robles (75')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores First Round clash between Aurora and Melgar.
Form, Standings, Stats
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aurora win with a probability of 44.43%. A win for Melgar had a probability of 29.2% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aurora win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.95%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Melgar win was 0-1 (8.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Aurora in this match.
| Result |
| Aurora | Draw | Melgar |
44.43% ( -0.4) | 26.37% ( 0.14) | 29.2% ( 0.26) |
| Both teams to score 50.86% ( -0.27) |
| 46.48% ( -0.42) | 53.52% ( 0.42) |
| 24.97% ( -0.36) | 75.04% ( 0.36) |
| 76.03% ( -0.38) | 23.97% ( 0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 41.79% ( -0.54) | 58.21% ( 0.54) |
| 66.89% ( -0.02) | 33.11% ( 0.02) |
