Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Jun 28, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Manuel Ferreira
Form, Standings, Stats
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We said: Olimpia 2-1 Melgar
Group leaders Olimpia have won both of their home matches in the group stage without conceding, and we think that they will claim another victory when they face a Melgar side who have lost both of their two away group games.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olimpia win with a probability of 50.06%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Melgar had a probability of 23.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Olimpia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.83%) and 2-1 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a Melgar win it was 0-1 (8.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Olimpia would win this match.
| Result |
| Olimpia | Draw | Melgar |
50.06% ( -0.43) | 26.25% ( 0.18) | 23.69% ( 0.26) |
| Both teams to score 46.92% ( -0.22) |
| 43.5% ( -0.43) | 56.5% ( 0.43) |
| 22.5% ( -0.35) | 77.49% ( 0.34) |
| 77.36% ( -0.37) | 22.64% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 43.72% ( -0.56) | 56.27% ( 0.56) |
| 60.65% ( 0) | 39.35% ( -0) |
