SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Patronato win with a probability of 44.34%. A win for Melgar had a probability of 28.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Patronato win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.63%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest Melgar win was 0-1 (9.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Patronato would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Patronato | Draw | Melgar |
44.34% ( -0.19) | 27.64% ( 0.03) | 28.02% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 46.52% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.24% ( -0.03) | 58.75% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.72% ( -0.02) | 79.28% ( 0.02) |
| Patronato Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.63% ( -0.11) | 26.37% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.48% ( -0.14) | 61.51% ( 0.15) |
| Melgar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.18% ( 0.11) | 36.82% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.39% ( 0.11) | 73.61% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Patronato | Draw | Melgar |
| 1-0 @ 12.94% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 8.63% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 8.62% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.83% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 3.83% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.91% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.28% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.28% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.02% Total : 44.34% | 1-1 @ 12.93% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.71% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.31% ( 0)Other @ 0.69% Total : 27.64% | 0-1 @ 9.7% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.46% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 4.85% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.61% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.82% Total : 28.02% |
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