SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 54.77%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Patronato had a probability of 19.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Patronato win it was 0-1 (7.49%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melgar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melgar | Draw | Patronato |
54.77% ( 0.36) | 25.27% ( -0.16) | 19.96% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 45.09% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.48% ( 0.34) | 56.53% ( -0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.49% ( 0.27) | 77.52% ( -0.27) |
| Melgar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.35% ( 0.28) | 20.66% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.77% ( 0.44) | 53.23% ( -0.44) |
| Patronato Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.82% ( -0.02) | 43.18% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.56% ( -0.02) | 79.44% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melgar | Draw | Patronato |
| 1-0 @ 14.06% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 11.09% ( 0.05)2-1 @ 9.32% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 5.83% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 4.9% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 2.3% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.93% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.28% Total : 54.76% | 1-1 @ 11.81% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 8.92% ( -0.12)2-2 @ 3.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.63% Total : 25.27% | 0-1 @ 7.49% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 3.15% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.1% ( 0)Other @ 1.88% Total : 19.96% |
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