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Old Firm derby: 13 hrs 49 mins
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EFL Trophy | Group Stage
Sep 5, 2023 at 7.30pm UK
Oakwell Stadium
GT

Barnsley
2 - 0
Grimsby Town

Dodgson (33'), Marsh (90+1')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Cheltenham 0-2 Barnsley
Saturday, September 2 at 3pm in League One

We said: Barnsley 2-0 Grimsby Town

Both sides will make changes for this match, but Barnsley will be able to call upon the superior quality across the pitch, and we are expecting the home side to secure the victory on Tuesday night. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 48.32%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 27.95% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.79%) and 2-0 (7.56%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 1-2 (6.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Barnsley in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Barnsley.

Result
BarnsleyDrawGrimsby Town
48.32% (0.012 0.01) 23.72% (-0.047999999999998 -0.05) 27.95% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Both teams to score 58.64% (0.187 0.19)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.06% (0.236 0.24)42.93% (-0.24299999999999 -0.24)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.66% (0.23399999999999 0.23)65.33% (-0.23999999999999 -0.24)
Barnsley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.07% (0.093000000000004 0.09)17.93% (-0.099 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.26% (0.165 0.16)48.74% (-0.171 -0.17)
Grimsby Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.45% (0.143 0.14)28.54% (-0.148 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.67% (0.182 0.18)64.33% (-0.187 -0.19)
Score Analysis
    Barnsley 48.32%
    Grimsby Town 27.95%
    Draw 23.71%
BarnsleyDrawGrimsby Town
2-1 @ 9.48% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-0 @ 8.79% (-0.065999999999999 -0.07)
2-0 @ 7.56% (-0.032 -0.03)
3-1 @ 5.43% (0.017 0.02)
3-0 @ 4.33% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 3.4% (0.024 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.33% (0.015 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.86% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.46% (0.015 0.02)
Other @ 3.67%
Total : 48.32%
1-1 @ 11.02% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
2-2 @ 5.94% (0.023 0.02)
0-0 @ 5.12% (-0.055000000000001 -0.06)
3-3 @ 1.42% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 23.71%
1-2 @ 6.91% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-1 @ 6.41% (-0.042000000000001 -0.04)
0-2 @ 4.02% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.89% (0.014 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.48% (0.02 0.02)
0-3 @ 1.68% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-4 @ 0.91% (0.009 0.01)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 27.95%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Cheltenham 0-2 Barnsley
Saturday, September 2 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Wigan 0-2 Barnsley
Saturday, August 26 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Barnsley 1-3 Oxford Utd
Saturday, August 19 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Barnsley 1-3 Peterborough
Tuesday, August 15 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Bristol Rovers 1-1 Barnsley
Saturday, August 12 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Barnsley 2-3 Tranmere (6-7 pen.)
Tuesday, August 8 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Grimsby Town 2-0 Gillingham
Saturday, September 2 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Grimsby Town 2-2 Man City U21s (2-5 pen.)
Tuesday, August 29 at 7.30pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Walsall 1-1 Grimsby Town
Saturday, August 26 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Grimsby Town 1-1 Mansfield
Saturday, August 19 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Grimsby Town 2-0 Salford City
Tuesday, August 15 at 7.45pm in League Two
Last Game: Notts County 3-2 Grimsby Town
Saturday, August 12 at 3pm in League Two


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