Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 49.83%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 25.25% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 0-1 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.01) 
