Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 37.39%. A win for Catanzaro had a probability of 33.63% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.66%) and 0-2 (7.15%). The likeliest Catanzaro win was 1-0 (11.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Spezia in this match.
0.09) 
-0.15) 
