Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 40.09%. A win for Catanzaro had a probability of 34.19% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Catanzaro win was 0-1 (8.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
-0.93) 
1.06) 
