Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sampdoria win with a probability of 38.82%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 31.15% and a draw had a probability of 30%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sampdoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.76%) and 2-1 (7.49%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (12.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
0.07) 
-0.07) 
