SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Colombia | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Brazil | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Costa Rica | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Paraguay | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 54.77%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Costa Rica had a probability of 22.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.83%) and 2-0 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for a Costa Rica win it was 0-1 (6.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Colombia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Colombia | Draw | Costa Rica |
54.77% ( -0.02) | 23.17% ( -0.03) | 22.06% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 54.21% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.09% ( 0.18) | 45.91% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.78% ( 0.17) | 68.22% ( -0.16) |
| Colombia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.36% ( 0.06) | 16.65% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.51% ( 0.1) | 46.49% ( -0.1) |
| Costa Rica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.03% ( 0.14) | 34.97% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.29% ( 0.15) | 71.71% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Colombia | Draw | Costa Rica |
| 1-0 @ 10.43% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0)2-0 @ 9.36% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 5.88% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.59% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.09% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.63% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.51% 4-2 @ 1.38% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.12% Total : 54.76% | 1-1 @ 10.96% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.82% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5.17% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 23.17% | 0-1 @ 6.12% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.76% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.21% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.13% ( 0)Other @ 2.02% Total : 22.06% |
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