SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 43.75%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Romania had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.64%) and 2-1 (8.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.05%), while for a Romania win it was 0-1 (10.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Colombia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Colombia | Draw | Romania |
43.75% ( 0.03) | 28.14% ( 0.15) | 28.1% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 45.21% ( -0.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.56% ( -0.58) | 60.43% ( 0.58) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.43% ( -0.44) | 80.57% ( 0.44) |
| Colombia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.54% ( -0.26) | 27.46% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.05% ( -0.33) | 62.94% ( 0.33) |
| Romania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.32% ( -0.47) | 37.67% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.54% ( -0.46) | 74.45% ( 0.45) |
| Score Analysis |
| Colombia | Draw | Romania |
| 1-0 @ 13.37% ( 0.2) 2-0 @ 8.64% ( 0.06)2-1 @ 8.44% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 3.72% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.63% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 1.77% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.2% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.17% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.8% Total : 43.75% | 1-1 @ 13.05% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 10.34% ( 0.22)2-2 @ 4.12% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.63% Total : 28.13% | 0-1 @ 10.09% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 6.37% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 4.93% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.69% Total : 28.1% |
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