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Copa America | Group Stage
Jun 24, 2024 at 11pm UK
NRG Stadium
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Colombia
2 - 1
Paraguay

Munoz (32'), Lerma (42')
Lerma (14')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Enciso (69')
Velazquez (53'), Cubas (78'), Oscar Garnero (90+4')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Last Game: Colombia 3-0 Bolivia
Saturday, June 15 at 10pm in International Friendlies
All competitions
Last Game: Panama 0-1 Paraguay
Sunday, June 16 at 11.30pm in International Friendlies

We said: Colombia 1-0 Paraguay

The Colombians are just as sharp defensively as Paraguay, and we believe their experience and momentum will be enough to grind out a narrow victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 50.42%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Paraguay had a probability of 21.89%.

The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.7%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.5%), while for a Paraguay win it was 0-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Colombia would win this match.

Result
ColombiaDrawParaguay
50.42% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02) 27.69% (0.055 0.05) 21.89% (-0.032999999999998 -0.03)
Both teams to score 41.35% (-0.163 -0.16)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
37.28% (-0.19 -0.19)62.72% (0.19 0.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
17.73% (-0.14 -0.14)82.26% (0.13800000000001 0.14)
Colombia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.8% (-0.096000000000004 -0.1)25.2% (0.096 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.07% (-0.133 -0.13)59.93% (0.133 0.13)
Paraguay Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.28% (-0.148 -0.15)44.72% (0.147 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.29% (-0.118 -0.12)80.71% (0.119 0.12)
Score Analysis
    Colombia 50.41%
    Paraguay 21.89%
    Draw 27.69%
ColombiaDrawParaguay
1-0 @ 15.53% (0.069999999999999 0.07)
2-0 @ 10.7% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 8.62% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-0 @ 4.92% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
3-1 @ 3.96% (-0.021 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.7% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.59% (-0.015 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.36% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 2.03%
Total : 50.41%
1-1 @ 12.5% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 11.26% (0.08 0.08)
2-2 @ 3.47% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 0.46%
Total : 27.69%
0-1 @ 9.07% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
1-2 @ 5.03% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-2 @ 3.65% (-0.004 -0)
1-3 @ 1.35% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-3 @ 0.98% (-0.005 -0.01)
2-3 @ 0.93% (-0.0099999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 0.89%
Total : 21.89%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Colombia 3-0 Bolivia
Saturday, June 15 at 10pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: USA 1-5 Colombia
Saturday, June 8 at 10.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Colombia 3-2 Romania
Tuesday, March 26 at 7.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Spain 0-1 Colombia
Friday, March 22 at 8.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mexico 2-3 Colombia
Sunday, December 17 at 12am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Colombia 1-0 Venezuela
Sunday, December 10 at 11.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Panama 0-1 Paraguay
Sunday, June 16 at 11.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Chile 3-0 Paraguay
Wednesday, June 12 at 1am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Peru 0-0 Paraguay
Saturday, June 8 at 1.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Paraguay 0-1 Colombia
Tuesday, November 21 at 11pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Chile 0-0 Paraguay
Friday, November 17 at 12.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Paraguay 1-0 Bolivia
Tuesday, October 17 at 11.30pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America


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