SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Italy | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Croatia | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 4 | Albania | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Austria | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | France | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Poland | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 50.72%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Poland had a probability of 23.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.08%) and 2-1 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.31%), while for a Poland win it was 0-1 (8.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Croatia in this match.
| Result | ||
| Croatia | Draw | Poland |
50.72% ( 0.23) | 26.26% ( -0.01) | 23.02% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 46.18% ( -0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.9% ( -0.15) | 57.1% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.02% ( -0.12) | 77.98% ( 0.13) |
| Croatia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.4% ( 0.04) | 22.6% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.78% ( 0.05) | 56.22% ( -0.05) |
| Poland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.67% ( -0.3) | 40.33% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.04% ( -0.28) | 76.96% ( 0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Croatia | Draw | Poland |
| 1-0 @ 13.55% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 10.08% ( 0.08)2-1 @ 9.15% ( -0)3-0 @ 5% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 4.54% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.06% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.69% ( 0)Other @ 2.79% Total : 50.71% | 1-1 @ 12.31% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.12% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 4.16% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.68% Total : 26.26% | 0-1 @ 8.28% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.59% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 3.76% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.31% Total : 23.02% |
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