SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Spain | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Croatia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Albania | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Italy | 8 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 8 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 8 | -10 | 8 |
| 5 | Malta | 8 | -18 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 73.6%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for North Macedonia had a probability of 8.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.44%) and 3-0 (10.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.18%), while for a North Macedonia win it was 0-1 (3.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Croatia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Croatia | Draw | North Macedonia |
73.6% ( 2.26) | 17.8% ( -1.2) | 8.6% ( -1.06) |
| Both teams to score 38.05% ( -0.59) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.3% ( 1.72) | 49.69% ( -1.72) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.29% ( 1.53) | 71.71% ( -1.53) |
| Croatia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88% ( 1.16) | 12% ( -1.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.55% ( 2.4) | 37.45% ( -2.4) |
| North Macedonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 43.24% ( -1.26) | 56.76% ( 1.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 11.09% ( -0.73) | 88.91% ( 0.73) |
| Score Analysis |
| Croatia | Draw | North Macedonia |
| 2-0 @ 15.31% ( 0.29) 1-0 @ 14.44% ( -0.37)3-0 @ 10.82% ( 0.67)2-1 @ 8.67% ( -0.17)3-1 @ 6.13% ( 0.15)4-0 @ 5.74% ( 0.59)4-1 @ 3.25% ( 0.22)5-0 @ 2.43% ( 0.34)3-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.38% ( 0.15)4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.78% Total : 73.59% | 1-1 @ 8.18% ( -0.54) 0-0 @ 6.81% ( -0.49)2-2 @ 2.46% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.35% Total : 17.8% | 0-1 @ 3.86% ( -0.44) 1-2 @ 2.32% ( -0.25)0-2 @ 1.09% ( -0.17)Other @ 1.34% Total : 8.6% |
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