SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Turkey | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Georgia | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 3 | -2 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 52.63%. A win for Croatia had a probability of 23.76% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (8.9%). The likeliest Croatia win was 0-1 (6.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Portugal in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Portugal.
| Result | ||
| Portugal | Draw | Croatia |
52.63% ( -2.06) | 23.6% ( 0.52) | 23.76% ( 1.53) |
| Both teams to score 54.95% ( 0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.05% ( -0.64) | 45.94% ( 0.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.75% ( -0.61) | 68.25% ( 0.61) |
| Portugal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.57% ( -0.98) | 17.43% ( 0.97) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.12% ( -1.73) | 47.88% ( 1.73) |
| Croatia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.55% ( 1.02) | 33.45% ( -1.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.92% ( 1.11) | 70.08% ( -1.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Portugal | Draw | Croatia |
| 1-0 @ 10.18% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 8.9% ( -0.34)3-1 @ 5.67% ( -0.24)3-0 @ 5.18% ( -0.37)3-2 @ 3.11% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 2.48% ( -0.19)4-0 @ 2.26% ( -0.24)4-2 @ 1.36% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.75% Total : 52.63% | 1-1 @ 11.15% ( 0.25) 0-0 @ 5.83% ( 0.16)2-2 @ 5.34% ( 0.1)3-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.15% Total : 23.6% | 0-1 @ 6.38% ( 0.34) 1-2 @ 6.11% ( 0.3)0-2 @ 3.5% ( 0.28)1-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.17)2-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 1.28% ( 0.13)Other @ 2.32% Total : 23.76% |
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