Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cuiaba win with a probability of 51.55%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Criciuma had a probability of 23.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cuiaba win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Criciuma win it was 0-1 (7.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cuiaba would win this match.
0.11) 
-0.12) 
