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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Smorgon win with a probability of 37.39%. A win for Dnepr Mogilev had a probability of 36.5% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Smorgon win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.29%). The likeliest Dnepr Mogilev win was 1-0 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Dnepr Mogilev | Draw | Smorgon |
36.5% ( 0.11) | 26.1% ( 0.02) | 37.39% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 53.88% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.38% ( -0.08) | 50.62% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.47% ( -0.07) | 72.53% ( 0.08) |
| Dnepr Mogilev Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.15% ( 0.03) | 26.85% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.85% ( 0.03) | 62.15% ( -0.03) |
| Smorgon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.66% ( -0.11) | 26.34% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.52% ( -0.15) | 61.48% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Dnepr Mogilev | Draw | Smorgon |
| 1-0 @ 9.3% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.16% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 6.11% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 3.58% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.68% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.39% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.18% ( 0)Other @ 3.12% Total : 36.51% | 1-1 @ 12.4% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.07% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 5.44% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0)Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.1% | 0-1 @ 9.44% ( 0) 1-2 @ 8.28% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 6.29% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.68% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.23% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.33% Total : 37.39% |
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