The first leg was a thriller, and Lugano kept themselves in the tie by scoring a third deep into stoppage time. Fenerbahce remain the big favourites, though, and we are expecting the Turkish giants to secure their spot in the next round without any major dramas. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 64.79%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Lugano had a probability of 16.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.98%) and 1-0 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.42%), while for a Lugano win it was 1-2 (4.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Fenerbahce in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Fenerbahce.

Result
Fenerbahce	Draw	Lugano
64.79% ( 0)	18.76% ( -0)	16.44% ( -0)

Both teams to score 59.52%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.8% (

34.19% (

-0)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.91% (

56.08% (

-0)

Fenerbahce Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.04%

9.96% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.07% (

32.93% (

-0)

Lugano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.1% (

-0)

33.9%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.43% (

70.57% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Fenerbahce 64.79%

Lugano 16.44%

Draw 18.76%

Fenerbahce	Draw	Lugano
2-1 @ 9.72% 2-0 @ 8.98% 1-0 @ 7.79% ( -0) 3-1 @ 7.47% 3-0 @ 6.91% 4-1 @ 4.31% 3-2 @ 4.04% 4-0 @ 3.98% 4-2 @ 2.33% 5-1 @ 1.99% 5-0 @ 1.84% 5-2 @ 1.08% Other @ 4.37% Total : 64.79%	1-1 @ 8.42% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.26% 0-0 @ 3.38% 3-3 @ 1.46% Other @ 0.25% Total : 18.76%	1-2 @ 4.56% 0-1 @ 3.65% ( -0) 0-2 @ 1.98% 2-3 @ 1.9% 1-3 @ 1.64% Other @ 2.72% Total : 16.44%