SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 55.28%. A win for FC Winterthur had a probability of 22.88% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.38%) and 2-0 (8.22%). The likeliest FC Winterthur win was 1-2 (5.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lugano would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lugano | Draw | FC Winterthur |
55.28% ( 0.74) | 21.85% ( -0.28) | 22.88% ( -0.46) |
| Both teams to score 59.84% ( 0.39) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.03% ( 0.78) | 38.97% ( -0.78) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.71% ( 0.81) | 61.29% ( -0.81) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.94% ( 0.5) | 14.06% ( -0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.36% ( 0.97) | 41.64% ( -0.97) |
| FC Winterthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.62% ( 0.05) | 30.37% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.43% ( 0.05) | 66.57% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lugano | Draw | FC Winterthur |
| 2-1 @ 9.79% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.38% ( -0.15)2-0 @ 8.22% ( -0)3-1 @ 6.4% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 5.38% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 3.82% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 3.14% ( 0.11)4-0 @ 2.64% ( 0.09)4-2 @ 1.87% ( 0.07)5-1 @ 1.23% ( 0.07)5-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.38% Total : 55.28% | 1-1 @ 9.98% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.27% ( -0.16)3-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.24% Total : 21.85% | 1-2 @ 5.95% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 5.09% ( -0.18)0-2 @ 3.03% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 2.36% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.32% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.93% Total : 22.88% |
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