SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 42.84%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 33.13% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.89%) and 2-0 (6.4%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Basel | Draw | Lugano |
42.84% ( -0) | 24.03% ( 0.01) | 33.13% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 60.48% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.21% ( -0.07) | 41.8% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.8% ( -0.07) | 64.2% ( 0.07) |
| Basel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.26% ( -0.03) | 19.74% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.24% ( -0.05) | 51.76% ( 0.05) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.36% ( -0.04) | 24.64% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.84% ( -0.06) | 59.16% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Basel | Draw | Lugano |
| 2-1 @ 8.97% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.89% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 6.4% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.85% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.46% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.97% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.41% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.38% ( -0)Other @ 3.11% Total : 42.84% | 1-1 @ 11.05% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.86% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.03% | 1-2 @ 7.74% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.81% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.77% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.62% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.93% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.23% 1-4 @ 1.27% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.03% ( -0)Other @ 2.73% Total : 33.13% |
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