Among teams in the bottom half of Serie A, Genoa (33) and Monza (34) have conceded the fewest goals so far this season - and both are well-drilled by up-and-coming coaches. It could be tight and tactical, then, with only one goal separating the sides at full-time.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 41.81%. A win for Monza had a probability of 30.87% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Monza win was 0-1 (9.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.07) 
