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Serie A | Gameweek 15
Dec 10, 2023 at 2pm UK
U-Power Stadium
GL

Monza
1 - 0
Genoa

Mota (83')
Kiriakopoulos (65')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Vasquez (34'), Frendrup (86')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Monza 1-2 Juventus
Friday, December 1 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Lazio 1-0 Genoa
Tuesday, December 5 at 8pm in Coppa Italia

We said: Monza 1-0 Genoa

Both sides average around one goal per game, so it may be a tight contest, with Monza capitalising on home advantage and their visitors' weakness when on the road. The hosts have also had more than a week to prepare, while Genoa undertook a midweek Coppa Italia trip down to Rome. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 53.05%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 22.29%.

The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.92%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.71%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (7.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Monza in this match.

Result
MonzaDrawGenoa
53.05% (0.433 0.43) 24.65% (0.030000000000001 0.03) 22.29% (-0.462 -0.46)
Both teams to score 49.89% (-0.654 -0.65)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.21% (-0.582 -0.58)51.78% (0.583 0.58)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.45% (-0.508 -0.51)73.55% (0.50700000000001 0.51)
Monza Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.52% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)19.48% (0.053999999999998 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.66% (-0.089000000000006 -0.09)51.34% (0.090000000000003 0.09)
Genoa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.96% (-0.771 -0.77)38.04% (0.771 0.77)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.19% (-0.751 -0.75)74.81% (0.751 0.75)
Score Analysis
    Monza 53.05%
    Genoa 22.29%
    Draw 24.65%
MonzaDrawGenoa
1-0 @ 12.12% (0.26 0.26)
2-0 @ 9.92% (0.195 0.19)
2-1 @ 9.58% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
3-0 @ 5.41% (0.098 0.1)
3-1 @ 5.23% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.53% (-0.061 -0.06)
4-0 @ 2.21% (0.036 0.04)
4-1 @ 2.14% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.03% (-0.026 -0.03)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 53.05%
1-1 @ 11.71% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.41% (0.171 0.17)
2-2 @ 4.63% (-0.103 -0.1)
Other @ 0.9%
Total : 24.65%
0-1 @ 7.16% (0.016 0.02)
1-2 @ 5.66% (-0.117 -0.12)
0-2 @ 3.46% (-0.065 -0.07)
1-3 @ 1.82% (-0.077 -0.08)
2-3 @ 1.49% (-0.065 -0.07)
0-3 @ 1.12% (-0.045 -0.04)
Other @ 1.58%
Total : 22.29%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Monza 1-2 Juventus
Friday, December 1 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Cagliari 1-1 Monza
Sunday, November 26 at 11.30am in Serie A
Last Game: Monza 1-1 Torino
Saturday, November 11 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Hellas Verona 1-3 Monza
Sunday, November 5 at 11.30am in Serie A
Last Game: Monza 1-1 Udinese
Sunday, October 29 at 2pm in Serie A
Last Game: Roma 1-0 Monza
Sunday, October 22 at 11.30am in Serie A
Last Game: Lazio 1-0 Genoa
Tuesday, December 5 at 8pm in Coppa Italia
Last Game: Genoa 1-1 Empoli
Saturday, December 2 at 2pm in Serie A
Last Game: Frosinone 2-1 Genoa
Sunday, November 26 at 2pm in Serie A
Last Game: Genoa 1-0 Hellas Verona
Friday, November 10 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Cagliari 2-1 Genoa
Sunday, November 5 at 2pm in Serie A
Last Game: Genoa 2-1 Reggiana
Wednesday, November 1 at 2pm in Coppa Italia


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