This is a really tough match to call; Getafe have been strong at home this season, losing just twice, while Girona have been impressive on their travels but have lost their last three. It would not be a surprise to see a home or indeed an away win, but we have had to settle on a share of the spoils here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 37.7%. A win for Getafe had a probability of 36.15% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.37%). The likeliest Getafe win was 1-0 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
0.07) 
-0.25) 
