This is such a difficult match to call, and it will be fascinating to see Girona's response after their poorest result of the campaign. Athletic are such a strong team, but their recent league form has been patchy, and we are expecting the points to be shared on Monday night.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 52.9%. A win for Girona had a probability of 24.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.52%). The likeliest Girona win was 1-2 (6.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
-1.04) 
0.14) 
