Olympic Games Men's Football | Group Stage
Jul 24, 2024 at 4pm UK
Allianz Riviera
Form, Standings, Stats
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:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
We said: Guinea U23s 1-1 New Zealand Under-23s
As merciless as New Zealand were during their qualification period, with no disrespect to Fiji or Vanuatu, Guinea are made of much tougher stuff.
On this occasion, we just cannot pick a clear winner and expect the two knockout hopefuls to shake hands on a point apiece, not an awful start for either manager.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea U23s win with a probability of 53.17%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for New Zealand Under-23s had a probability of 22.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guinea U23s win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.7%) and 2-0 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.44%), while for a New Zealand Under-23s win it was 0-1 (6.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
| Result |
| Guinea U23s | Draw | New Zealand Under-23s |
53.17% ( -22.57) | 24.06% ( 7.88) | 22.76% ( 14.69) |
| Both teams to score 52.26% ( 11.53) |
| 51.07% ( -4.38) | 48.93% ( 4.38) |
| 28.98% ( -4.1) | 71.02% ( 4.1) |
| 81.66% ( -8.3) | 18.34% ( 8.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 50.55% ( -16.34) | 49.45% ( 16.34) |
| New Zealand Under-23s Goals |
| 64% ( 18.72) | 36% ( -18.72) |
