While Le Havre have broadly thrived at Stade Oceane on their Ligue 1 return, blowing hot and cold in recent home matches means this one is harder to call. Nantes, on the other hand, have shown greater consistency in recent away matches, possibly giving them the edge on Sunday.
Even though a draw could be expected, we will stick our necks out and opt for a road victory given that the Dean Club are winless in their last eight matches against Nantes in all competitions (five losses).
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Le Havre win with a probability of 39.53%. A win for Nantes had a probability of 32.84% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Le Havre win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.25%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Nantes win was 0-1 (10.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Nantes would win this match.
0.04) 
-0.02) 
